|
 Iraq:
Elections, the Sunnis and the Insurgency
By Lt. Col. Rick Francona (Retired)
Rotarian Lt. Col. Rick Francona
(Retired) has presented two eClub One programs on the Middle East and
Iraq. Here is his update on Iraq. Currently Rick is under contract to
NBC as a Middle East military analyst.
Iraqis went to the polls on Sunday,
January 30. By most measures, it was a success, despite the death of
several dozen people. Initial estimates of participation range around 60
percent. This marks the country's first free elections in almost five
decades. Note the term "free." There have been referenda in Iraq before,
even under Saddam Husayn, although these have always been sham
exercises.
It will take a week to 10 days to tally the votes, but the conventional
wisdom is that the United Iraqi Coalition (ballot choice 169) will
emerge as the winner. This is the platform supported by Grand Ayatollah
'Ali Al-Sistani and headed by the leader of the Supreme Council for the
Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) 'Abd Al-'Aziz Al-Hakim. Although
there was some concern on the part of the United States about the
emergence of an Islamic government along the lines of the neighboring
Islamic Republic of Iran, both Sistani and Hakim have made it clear that
they have no intention of creating an Islamic state, and are committed
to allow all religious groups in the country the freedom to worship as
they please. The new government will almost certainly be Islamic in
character and based on Islamic values, but it will not implement Islamic
law. Of course, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has stated on more
than one occasion that the United States would not tolerate the
establishment of another Islamic Republic like Iran in the Persian Gulf.
As long as there are nearly 150,000 American troops in the ground in
Iraq, his statements do carry some weight.
Q. What's next?
A. After the votes are counted, the winning
coalitions/parties/slates will be told how many of the 275 national
assembly seats they will receive. Once seated, the assembly will then
elect a president, two vice presidents, then select a prime minister who
will form a government. This is somewhat similar to the electoral system
in Israel, except Israel now directly elects its prime minster. One of
the key duties of this new government will be to provide for the
drafting of a Constitution and the preparations for permanent elections
in December 2005.
Q. Will the government be considered legitimate?
A. I don't think there is any question of legitimacy in the eyes
of the Shi'a and Kurds. Both groups enjoyed large turnouts for the
election. The Sunni turnout was understandably lower - either because of
the boycott called for by many Sunni clerics, or because of intimidation
by the insurgents (most notably the Al-Qa'idah in Iraq group under Abu
Musa'ib Az-Zarqawi). However, given the overall turnout, most of the
Sunnis will likely accept the government as legitimate. On the other
side, the Shi'a and Kurds will almost certainly include Sunni groups.
They realize that any attempt to exclude or marginalize the Sunnis will
result in continued or increased animosity between the Sunnis and
majority Shi'a. For their part, the Sunnis will likely respond favorably
to offers of participation in the new government, in effect, having it
both ways. It reminds of me of California deputy governor Cruz
Bustamante's "No on the recall, yes to Bustamonte" position....
Q. What does this mean for the insurgency?
A. At this point, it is difficult to estimate the effect the
election results will have on the insurgency. There are two major
factions of what we commonly call the Iraqi insurgency. These are the
Az-Zarqawi group composed of mostly foreigners and possibly some Iraqi
fundamentalist Islamists (or jihadis) on one hand, and disaffected
former regime members (sometimes called the Ba'this) on the other. While
there is a very slight chance that the former regime members might be
convinced to quit the insurgency and become part of the new Iraq, I
think it safe to assume that any effort to reach out to the Al-Qa'idah
faction would certainly fail. The insurgents must be hunted down and
either killed or captured. The key to this is actionable intelligence.
That intelligence can only be supplied by the population of the areas in
which the insurgents operate - primarily the Sunni triangle. When the
Iraqi people are ready to commit themselves to the new government - and
only then, will the insurgency be defeated.
Q. What does this mean for American forces in Iraq?
A. In the near term, troop levels will likely remain at current
levels or decrease slightly as the two battalions of the US Army's 82nd
Airborne Division's "ready brigade" return to standby duty at Fort
Bragg. These battalions were sent to augment American troops providing
election security. Once additional Iraqi units are trained, or the level
of violence decreases (for example, if the Sunnis commit to the new
government), the process of withdrawing the coalition forces from Iraq
can begin.
The US government has stated that it will honor any Iraqi government
request to remove American forces from the country. The chances of that
request at this time is almost nil. Anyone in power in Iraq realizes
that until Iraq's security forces are more capable, American troops
remain the final guarantor of Iraqi security.
|
