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SYRIA UPDATE from a Rotarian Rotarian Lt. Col. Rick Francona (Retired) has eClub One programs on the Middle East and Iraq.  Here is his update on Iraq.  Currently Rick is under contract to NBC as a Middle East military analyst.

Q.  With the recent Israeli air strike on Syria and the lack of American condemnation of the attack, is the Administration toughening its stance on Syria?

A.  The Administration has been unhappy with Syria’s reluctance to crack down on what Washington calls terrorist organizations and Damascus’s failure to prevent its territory from being used as a conduit for “jihadists” going to Iraq to mount attacks on U.S. forces.  The fact that President Bush has not specifically condemned the air strike on the Ayn As-Sahaf camp is therefore not surprising. 

I view the Israeli strike was a precisely calculated response to the October 4 suicide bombing in Haifa that killed 19 and wounded 40 others.  This suicide attack came on the Jewish Sabbath and just two days before one of the highest Jewish holy days, Yom Kippur.  Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) claimed responsibility for the attack.  In response, Israeli aircraft struck the PIJ camp just 15 miles northwest of Damascus.  This area of Syria is mountainous with numerous caves, in fact, much of the camp’s primary facilities are in these caves.  Additionally, most observers believe this camp has been only manned by a caretaker staff for many years now.  Thus the Israeli attack was largely symbolic – it sends a message to Syria that Israel will attack terrorist targets wherever they may be, including inside Syria.  The fine distinction here that has not gone unnoticed in Damascus is that this was a PIJ target in Syria, not a Syrian target.  The last time Israel struck a Syrian target was the huge Dahr Al-Bayda’ radar site in Lebanon in 2001; that strike caused an international uproar and drew an American rebuke. 

Although Syrian officials issued the usual rhetoric about a military response if there are additional strikes, that is highly unlikely.  First, the Israeli military outclasses the Syrian armed forces in every aspect.  Second, this was probably an isolated incident to send that message to Damascus.  Third, any Syrian response will probably be done via their surrogates in Lebanon, meaning Lebanese Hizballah – trained and funded by Iran, controlled by Syria.

Q.  Why is Syria willing to support terrorism?

A.  This is the crux of the U.S.-Syrian relationship.  Whether or not something is terrorism is in the eye of the beholder, or “one man’s terrorist is another man’s guerrilla.”  While the United States considers Lebanese Hizballah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas (The Islamic Resistance Organization) to be terrorist organization, the Syrians (and many other Arabs) view them as legitimate national liberation movements. 

Another fine distinction that is not usually reported: attacks by these groups against military targets do not technically fit into the official U.S. government definition of terrorism – terrorism is directed at civilian targets.

Syria views the operational use of these groups as just another instrument of foreign policy.  Syrian foreign policy objectives include the return of the Golan Heights (occupied by Israel since 1967), a pro-Syrian regime (some would say “puppet”) in neighboring Lebanon, removal from the U.S. State Department list of states that sponsor terrorism, and diminution of U.S. influence in the region.  Let’s take these individually.

• Return of the Golan Heights.  The Israelis seized the Golan Heights in the Six Day War of 1967, removing Syrian guns that threatened northern Israel.  Since that time, however, technology has overtaken much of the military importance of geography and terrain.  While in 1967, if Syria wished to bombard Israel, it needed the Golan Heights.  Today, however, Syria possess medium range missiles with chemical warheads that range almost anywhere in Israel from inside Syria.  The real issue is water.  The headwaters of the Jordan River and streams that feed the Sea of Galilee (both are Israel’s main sources of water) and the Ruqad River in Syria are on the Golan Heights.  Israel wants to control the source of the water – Syria wants its land back.

• A pro-Syrian regime in Lebanon.  Syria views Lebanon much as the United States views Central and South America – their backyard.  The main land invasion route from Israel to Syria is Lebanon.  Syria has been a key player in Lebanon since the Lebanese civil war in the 1970s – Syrian troops intervened and have been there ever since.  When Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 and the Lebanese government of Bashir Jamayyil signed a treaty with Israel, he was assassinated by Syrian intelligence.  Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Syrian intelligence created and trained Hizballah to resist Israeli occupation of the south.  It was effective – Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000.  Today, Damascus uses Hizballah as its surrogate to keep pressure on Israel when it believes it is necessary.

• Removal from the terrorism list.  In its latest edition, the U.S. State Department listed the following countries as state sponsors of terrorism: Afghanistan, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Sudan and Syria.  Obviously, Afghanistan and Iraq no longer qualify, thanks to U.S. intervention.   The entry for Syria reads,

“The last known incidence of direct Syrian involvement in international terrorism occurred in 1986; since then, however, it has provided sanctuary and support for independent terrorist groups, including the PKK. Several terrorist groups maintain training camps or headquarters in Syrian territory.”

It is doubtful that Syria will be removed anytime soon.  There are several reasons for this.  First and foremost, Syria is turning a blind eye to the continued infiltration of terrorists (or “jihadists”) into Iraq from Syria, with the express purpose of attacking American forces as well as civilian targets.  Syria continues to support Hizballah and to allow Iran to train, resupply and fund the Lebanese group.  Although Damascus has played lip service to closing Palestinian oppositionist groups’ offices in Syria, their presence continues.

• Diminution of U.S. influence in the Middle East.  This is not only a Syrian concern, but other regional powers as well.  With the removal of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the removal of the Saddam Husayn regime in Iraq, the advent of pro-American governments in these two countries is likely.  This virtually surrounds both Iran and Syria with pro-Western governments and allows Washington to exert political pressure for change.  The other concern, also shared by other regimes, is the presence of a democracy in a region where Israel has the only freely elected government.

Given Syria’s possession of weapons of mass destruction, its reluctance to make any concessions to advance the Middle East peace process, its abysmal human rights record and continued conduit for “jihadists” heading for Iraq it is no wonder much of the world is forming the impression that Syria is now in the crosshairs of the Bush administration.

Other articles by Rick Francona published on MSNBC.com

• Syria's reluctant dictator  (April 15, 2003)

• Syria finds itself wondering aloud  (April 14, 2003)

Other articles by Rick Francona on Syria (from Middle East Perspectives)

• The Conversion of James "Youssef" Yee

• Syria - The Next Target of the Bush Administration?

• Syria - Bashar Al-Asad: Election of a Prince?

• Syria and the Alawites

• The Arab Socialist Renaissance Party – the Ba’th

• The Arrogance of Power - A Presidential Visit

• The Euphrates River (from The Politics of Water series)

• The Golan Heights (from The Politics of Water series)

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